Tua Tagovailoa Now Leading Favorite in NFL MVP Odds; Dolphins 13-1 in Super Bowl Odds

Sep 17, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates after a touchdown during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY SportsTua Tagovailoa has overtaken Patrick Mahomes as the NFL MVP odds favoriteTagovailoa is +600 to win the award, while the Dolphins are now a top-six Super Bowl contenderAre Tagovailoa and the Dolphins strong bets in the MVP and Super Bowl odds markets?

Through two weeks, no quarterback has been more impressive than Tua Tagovailoa and that has vaulted him up the NFL MVP odds. The fourth year QB leads the NFL in passing yards with 715 and has guided the Dolphins to a pair impressive road victories.

The latest came on Sunday Night Football against a very good Pats defense. Tua’s numbers paled in comparison to his Week 1 stats, but he was in complete control dicing up the New England secondary.

2023 NFL MVP Odds

His back-to-back strong performances have now pushed him to the top of the NFL MVP odds board. His +600 tag is just ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, who are both off to underwhelming starts.

Odds as of September 18 at BetMGM. Claim a BetMGM promo code to bet on NFL futures this week!

Tagovailoa Tops NFL MVP Odds Market

Tagovailoa started the campaign with +1900 odds to win MVP. His 466 yard, 4 TD performance in Week 1 versus the Chargers slashed his odds to +700, and his price was trimmed again following the win over the Patriots.

The Dolphins offense has looked unstoppable through two weeks. Tagovailoa has arguably the most dynamic pass catching options in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while role players like Braxton Berrios have exceeded early expectations.

Tua Tagovailoa, NFL

Passing Yards: 1stYards Per Attempt: 1stPassing TDs: 4thPasser Rating: 7th

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) September 18, 2023

He’s completing 65% of his passes so far, averaging over 9 yards per attempt. Not only is the pass game humming, but the rushing attack is as well. Raheem Mostert has scored three times already, ripping off 121 yards on the ground in Week 2.

That kind of balance only makes Tua more dangerous. Defenses can’t focus solely on him and his dynamic receivers, opening up huge passing windows through the play action game. Expect his gaudy numbers to continue as long as he stays healthy. His +600 price is very deserving, and is likely to shorten next week after a home game versus the lowly Broncos.

Tagovailoa Benefitting from Other Stars Poor Starts

This type of success is nothing new to Tagovailoa, who was one of the early season MVP favorites a year ago. Injuries and a poor offensive line derailed his campaign in 2022, but this season feels different. Tua’s been sacked just once in two games, absorbing only two QB hits.

Also strengthening his MVP case is the average to poor play of the other top contenders. Mahomes has put up mediocre stats by his standards so far, but that has more to do with his lack of quality receivers than anything else. Allen meanwhile, bounced back in Week 2 with a 3 TD effort,  but played abysmally in the season opener.

Joe Burrow has looked like a shell of himself, and his price reflects that. His MVP odds now sit at +1700, after opening at +700. Jalen Hurts has yet to deliver any wow moments, and has yet to exceed 200 yards passing in any single game.

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Dolphins Super Bowl Odds Slashed

Everyone expected Miami’s offense to be a top-10 unit this season. It was the defense that was a question mark. That unit was atrocious in Week 1, but bounced back in Week 2. The Dolphins held New England to 17 points, while picking up four sacks and two turnovers.

Miami’s odds to win the Super Bowl were shortened from +2500 to +1600 after Week 1, and are now down to +1300 following Week 2. If the defense continues to improve, their current price tag will look like a steal. No AFC team currently has a better chance to make the Super Bowl than the Fins per ESPN’s Football Power Index.

From ESPN First Take: Stephen A said if Tua stays healthy he will root for Miami to go to the Super Bowl. Shannon, it would be hard pressed for Tua not to win MVP, if he stays healthy pic.twitter.com/lC7sRNkZlm

— DolphinsTalk.com (@DolphinsTalk) September 12, 2023

At this point, the only franchise more impressive than Miami is the Cowboys. Dallas has been an absolute wrecking crew, destroying both New York squads.

All the value is gone on a Dallas championship wager, but consider Dak Prescott in the MVP market. Prescott was extremely efficient in carving up the Jets in Week 2, and is going to excel in Mike McCarthy’s pass first scheme. He was a trendy MVP longshot entering the season last year, and is set up for success in 2023 with dynamic weapons and an elite offensive line in front him.

As for a Super Bowl longshot, don’t sleep on the Bengals. Burrow still doesn’t look healthy, but once he does look out. Cincy is entering the easy part of their schedule with four very winnable games on deck, and has immense talent on both sides of the ball.

Don’t forget they started 0-2 last year before making a run back to the AFC title game. At +1800, they represent the best value on the board.

Super Bowl Picks: Dak Prescott MVP (+1500), Dolphins Super Bowl (+1300), Bengals Super Bowl (+1800)

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