NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

NFL Week 7 Pick’em Pool Strategy: Five Picks You Must Consider

October 18, 2018 – by Tom Federico

We’re back for NFL Week 7 with five picks that need to be on your radar screen if you want to win your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool. For a quick primer on value-driven picking in football pools, see our article on NFL pick’em pool strategy.

Note: Now that we’ve provided a detailed taste of our data-driven NFL pick’em pool advice over the past seven weeks, this will be our last weekly advice column of the 2018 season. If you’ve found value in the column, you can get our customized picks for your football pick’em pools by subscribing via the link in the box below.

Through NFL Week 6, TeamRankings subscribers have already reported almost 1,000 weekly prize wins in football pick’em pools, a win rate nearly four times as high as expected. And last season, 81% of subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick’em.

How? They used our Football Pick’em Pool Picks.

Review Of Last Week’s NFL Picks

Last week was another winning week for our value-driven pick advice. First, we recommended three value favorites: the Patriots, Ravens and Bengals. Two of those three teams won, with the Bengals losing on a last-second touchdown to the Steelers. The biggest result was the Patriots win, though, as about 55% of pick’em players nationally were on Kansas City.

Our unpopular toss-up pick, the Redskins, got out to an early lead against Carolina and hung on to win 23-17. That was the biggest value pick on the Week 6 slate, and if you took our advice there you likely gained ground on almost 80% of your pick’em opponents (the national pick popularity for Carolina). However, our biggest value gamble, the Giants, gave up the lead early against the Eagles and could never get back into the game.

Overall it was a 3-2 week. Because we’re mostly focusing on teams that are less popular picks than they should be, hitting the majority of these games should have an outsized positive impact on your performance in NFL pick’em contests and confidence pools.

Week 7 Value Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools

As usual, we’ve picked out five picks for NFL Week 7 that stand out based on win odds and pick popularity. Deciding which way you want to go on these games should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 7 picks.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific football pick’em pool depend on multiple strategy factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick’em Picks product ps out the best pick strategy for you.

Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Favorites at a Reasonable Price

Los Angeles Rams (at San Francisco)

The undefeated Rams are 10-point favorites on the road against San Francisco. Despite the Rams being the safest pick this week with win odds of around 80%, the public isn’t overrating LAR’s odds by very much, which is not often the case with bigger favorites. Put another way, despite nearly upsetting the Packers this past Monday Night, the 49ers are one of the least attractive upset picks you can make this week. San Francisco has a low chance to win (about 20%) coupled with only a 13% differential between win odds and nationwide popularity (7%). Almost every other underdog you can choose from this week has a better risk/reward profile.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Buffalo)

The Colts, 7.5-point favorites over the Bills, are the second biggest favorite of Week 7, but Indy is not being wildly overrated by the public as bigger favorites often are. It makes sense, as the public is probably wary of the Colts’ 1-5 record, while giving the Bills continued credit for their historic Week 3 win over Minnesota. Still, the Bills — who will be starting their third QB of the season in journeyman veteran Derek Anderson, who was just signed last week — aren’t a particularly attractive upset pick, with only 25% win odds and 12% pick popularity. Cincinnati, for example, is more likely to beat Kansas City than Buffalo is to beat Indianapolis, according to both Vegas odds and our objective models. Yet the Bengals have only 4% pick popularity, giving them a much better upset pick profile than Buffalo.

Value Favorites

Baltimore (vs. New Orleans)

The Ravens, favored by 2.5 points at home, are a very unpopular pick in pick’em pools this week, with only 28% of the public taking them. Interestingly, Baltimore was a 2.5-point favorite in Week 6 as well, and a slight majority of the public was also picking against them early in the week. It seems like strong public sentiment for New Orleans, which hasn’t lost since a crazy Week 1 game against Tampa Bay, is overriding considerations such as the Baltimore’s 21-0 road shutout of the Titans last week. Both the betting markets (which have Baltimore with over 56% implied win odds) and our models have the Ravens as the favorite here, so taking Baltimore means you get to pick the more likely winner and have a chance to gain on nearly three-quarters of your opponents if they win. It’s rare to see this much value on a favorite.

Value Gambles

Arizona (vs. Denver)

Arizona is 1-5 so far this season, with its lone victory coming against a 49ers team that also only has one win. Meanwhile, Denver is coming off a 3-point loss to the undefeated Rams. Nevertheless, our predictive ratings (based on all game results so far, plus preseason expectations) see these teams as only a few points apart, and the home venue for Arizona pretty much evens out that difference. Arizona’s lack of public support in this game (25% pick popularity) makes this game a potentially worthwhile spot to go with the unpopular team. The Cardinals are also only 1-point underdogs in the betting markets, so this game is close enough to a toss-up that Arizona is a no-brainer pick in weekly prize pools, and the Cardinals deserve consideration in season-prize pools as well.

Dallas (at Washington)

The Cowboys are 1.5-point underdogs on the road against division rival Washington. Despite a big win over Jacksonville last week, the Cowboys are still relatively unpopular this week, with only 34% of the public picking them; the fact that Washington pulled off its own upset of Carolina last week and has a better win-loss record than Dallas are likely contributing factors. With Vegas implied win odds of nearly 46%, though, the Cowboys are worth consideration in weekly prize pools given the nearly 12% differential between their win odds and pick popularity. In addition, our models are optimistic about Dallas’ chances, giving the Cowboys right around a 50/50 shot at winning this game. So Dallas is worth consideration in season-long pick’em pools as well.

Which Of These NFL Week 7 Picks Should You Make?

Maybe all of them, maybe just some of them. We’re not dodging the question — the reality is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.

We built our Football Pool Picks product to do all the number crunching for you, and p out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it will customize Week 7 pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.

Here’s how it works. First, we use data from national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team. Then, we compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you’re in a point spread pool) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool’s size and rules.

The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81% of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick’em contest.

You can find more information about our premium NFL products at the following pages: Football Pick’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

 

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