College Football Week 4 Rankings & Projections: Ohio State Still Climbing

College Football Week 4 Rankings & Projections: Ohio State Still Climbing (2019)

September 16, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Ohio State’s destruction of Indiana moves them up to the favorite in the Big Ten (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 4 of the season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

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College Football Week 4 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 4

Week 4 Rank	School	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Win Change	Week 3 Result
99	Kansas	Big 12	-10.1	8.6	3.5	1.6	W at Boston Col 48-24
50	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	2.8	6	8.6	1.3	W vs. Texas Southern 77-6
101	Coastal Car	Sun Belt	-11	5.8	6.1	1.3	W vs. Norfolk St 46-7
58	W Michigan	MAC	1.5	5.4	8.4	1.2	W vs. Georgia State 57-10
82	W Virginia	Big 12	-4.5	4.6	4.3	1	W vs. NC State 44-27
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	29.8	4.5	10.9	0.9	W at Indiana 51-10
28	TX Christian	Big 12	9.8	4.4	7.9	1.2	W at Purdue 34-13
47	Arizona St	Pac-12	3.3	4.4	7.2	2	W at Michigan St 10-7
107	Liberty	Independent I-A	-13	4.2	6.4	1.4	W vs. Buffalo 35-17
73	Toledo	MAC	-1.6	4.1	8.3	1	W vs. Murray St 45-0
67	Navy	AAC	-0.2	4.1	6.7	0.9	W vs. E Carolina 42-10

Kansas got its first road win in over a decade, and did so in emphatic fashion, winning at Boston College by 24 points. That result rocketed Kansas up the rankings just a week after they lost at home to Coastal Carolina. Now (drum roll please) Kansas is not the lowest-rated Power Five school, as that honor goes to Rutgers.

It was a good week overall for the Big 12, as in addition to Kansas, West Virginia got their first win, and TCU picked up a big road win at Purdue. Kansas State (win at Mississippi State), Oklahoma (win at UCLA), and Oklahoma State (win at Tulsa) also improved their ratings by 2.0 or more points.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 4

Week 4 Rank	School	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Win Change	Week 3 Result
86	Boston Col	ACC	-5.9	-8.6	4.5	-2.5	L vs. Kansas 48-24
76	VA Tech	ACC	-2.6	-5.8	5.6	-1.1	W vs. Furman 24-17
59	NC State	ACC	1.1	-5.3	6.6	-1.5	L at W Virginia 44-27
112	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-15.1	-4.9	4.9	-1.3	L at W Michigan 57-10
94	Wyoming	Mountain West	-7.5	-4.8	7.3	-0.7	W vs. Idaho 21-16
53	Indiana	Big Ten	2.5	-4.4	5.8	-0.7	L vs. Ohio State 51-10
111	E Carolina	AAC	-15	-4.2	4.1	-1	L at Navy 42-10
79	Arkansas St	Sun Belt	-3.2	-4.1	7.2	-0.8	L at Georgia 55-0
96	GA Tech	ACC	-8.2	-4	2.9	-1.6	L vs. The Citadel 27-24
9	Oregon	Pac-12	19.2	-4	9.3	-0.5	W vs. Montana 35-3

How bad is the ACC? The conference was already struggling before Week 3, and three ACC schools show up as the largest ratings declines heading into Week 4, while Georgia Tech also makes the list by losing at home to The Citadel. Our 2019 college football conference winner projections now have Clemson with an 87% chance to win the conference, and a 74% chance of going undefeated. The interesting question will be what happens with Clemson in the CFB Playoff if they do lose a game in the ACC.

Remember when Georgia State stunned Tennessee? Well, they lost to Western Michigan 57-10 and are back down among the bottom 20 teams in FBS.

The TR Top 25

These are predictive ratings, not rankings of what teams have accomplished by wins and losses. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Several of the teams in the Top 25 have lost games, sometimes in upsets to teams below them in these ratings. Upsets happens, and if those results prove not to be anomalies as the season progresses, the ratings will adjust. Michigan State, Maryland, USC, and Mississippi State (barely) all remain in our Top 25 heading to Week 4 despite losses, usually of the close and sometimes excruciating variety.

Rank	School	Rating
1	Alabama	33.1
2	Clemson	31.1
3	Ohio State	29.8
4	Georgia	28.4
5	Wisconsin	26.3
6	LSU	24.5
7	Oklahoma	23.1
8	Notre Dame	21.4
9	Oregon	19.2
10	Central Florida	19.2
11	Auburn	18.6
12	Texas A&M	18.3
13	Penn State	18.0
14	Florida	17.8
15	Michigan	15.6
16	Texas	15.2
17	Michigan State	14.4
18	Maryland	14.3
19	Miami-FL	13.5
20	Washington State	13.3
21	Utah	12.3
22	Iowa	11.7
23	USC	11.6
24	Washington	11.2
25	Mississippi State	10.8

CFB Week 4 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	87%	Miami-FL	6%	Virginia	3%
Big 12	Oklahoma	57%	Texas	18%	Baylor/TCU	7%
Big Ten	Ohio State	46%	Wisconsin	38%	Penn State	5%
Pac-12	Oregon	40%	Utah	17%	USC	16%
SEC	Alabama	46%	Georgia	35%	LSU	9%
AAC	Central Florida	59%	Memphis	13%	Cincinnati	6%
C USA	Marshall	25%	Florida Atlantic	22%	Southern Miss	21%
MAC	Western Michigan	26%	Toledo	26%	Ohio	23%
MWC	Boise State	35%	Utah State	18%	Air Force	16%
Sun Belt	Appalachian St	35%	La Lafayette	32%	Arkansas State	13%

The biggest climbers among the power conference teams in terms of conference title odds are the following: Clemson (ACC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big 12), Washington (Pac-12), and Georgia (SEC).

Several teams in the Big Ten East saw their title odds impacted negatively as Ohio State put up a second straight impressive performance. Add in losses for Maryland and Michigan State that lowered their ratings, and the Buckeyes were a big gainer this week.

The MAC and Conference USA are the most wide-open races as we get ready to enter conference play on a regular basis.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

Rank	Team	Conference	6 wins or better	change	Result
47	Arizona St	Pac-12	82%	41%	W at Michigan St 10-7
107	Liberty	Independent I-A	75%	37%	W vs. Buffalo 35-17
101	Coastal Car	Sun Belt	62%	30%	W vs. Norfolk St 46-7
66	Minnesota	Big Ten	64%	28%	W vs. GA Southern 35-32
48	Duke	ACC	65%	24%	W at Middle Tenn 41-18
45	Temple	AAC	94%	22%	W vs. Maryland 20-17
33	Nebraska	Big Ten	72%	22%	W vs. N Illinois 44-8
51	Pittsburgh	ACC	60%	21%	L at Penn State 17-10
67	Navy	AAC	73%	20%	W vs. E Carolina 42-10
90	E Michigan	MAC	95%	20%	W at Illinois 34-31

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win 6 games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to 6 wins with the results of the last week. Most did so by getting key swing wins or pulling upsets, though Pittsburgh saw their odds go up despite losing, because they only lost by seven points to Penn State. That’s little solace for Pitt fans knowing that their head coach opted to try for a FG from the Penn State one-yard line late in the fourth quarter when down by seven points.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

Rank	School	Conference	1 or fewer losses
2	Clemson	ACC	96%
1	Alabama	SEC	80%
10	Central FL	AAC	69%
3	Ohio State	Big Ten	69%
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	63%
4	Georgia	SEC	63%
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	57%
35	Boise State	Mountain West	46%
8	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	37%
6	LSU	SEC	37%
31	Memphis	AAC	25%
21	Utah	Pac-12	25%
46	Air Force	Mountain West	19%
9	Oregon	Pac-12	18%
20	Wash State	Pac-12	17%
74	San Diego St	Mountain West	17%
13	Penn State	Big Ten	16%

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups will certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better.

(No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.)

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Georgia and Notre Dame have a big matchup this week, and the winner should see their chances of getting to 11 wins shoot up even more, while the loser will have them severely impacted.

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