Of the 15 games on Friday’s Major League Baseball slate, 11 of them are series openers, and there are several juicy matchups on hand. The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians play the second game of a four-game series in what could likely be an ALCS preview, with them being two of four teams in the majors with 65-plus wins. And on a much less competitive scale, the series opener between the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins will draw attention as the White Sox look to snap a 17-game losing streak before they inch any closer to the record for most consecutive losses in MLB history.
What games do we have our eye on to start the weekend? Read on for our MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 2.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (+100) at Detroit Tigers (-118) | O/U 7 (-104/-118)
What was likely considered a disappointment for many MLB contenders, Tarik Skubal stayed put at the trade deadline, and now the southpaw gives the Detroit Tigers more than a good chance to win every fifth game when he toes the rubber.
Skubal is the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, and he has been especially lights out at home, with a 7-0 record and 1.95 ERA in 10 starts this season at Comerica Park. Those numbers include a dominant performance against the Kansas City Royals, when he earned the victory after holding the division rival to one run over seven innings and striking out six. In that start, he induced a whopping 35% CSW%, including a 48% CSW% on his changeup which he threw 32% of the time.
Detroit is 4-2 in Skubal’s last six starts, and three of the four wins came against teams currently over .500 (Twins, Guardians, Phillies). The Tigers are also 5-2 in Skubal’s seven starts against AL Central rivals, and we expect him to outpitch Cole Ragans, who has pitched to a 5.40 ERA and .286 OBA over the last 15 days.
MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-118)
Toronto Blue Jays (+150) at New York Yankees (-178) | O/U 9 (-110/-110)
Kevin Gausman has the unenviable task of facing a Yankees lineup that has averaged more than nine runs per game during their five-game winning streak. The addition of Jazz Chisholm and the return of Giancarlo Stanton from injury has made New York’s lineup the deepest it has been since early in the first half of the season, and the Yankees have collectively slashed .305/.371/.579 since July 27.
Gausman is likely in for a poor start as has been lit up in his career by the heart of the Yankees order. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 25-for-69 (.362) with seven of the 12 extra-base hits being home runs. And while Marcus Stroman has lost back-to-back home starts, he ramps up the strikeouts when pitching at Yankee Stadium. The righty has 55 punchouts in 56 …“ home innings, and 28 strikeouts in 57 …“ innings on the road. And even in the last two losses in the Bronx, Stroman has reached five-plus strikeouts, and five of his last six home starts.
Jazz Chisholm is the 2nd player with 4 HR in his first 3 games with ANY franchise, joining 2016 Trevor Story
Chisholm is the first with 2 multi-HR games in his first 3 games with ANY franchise https://t.co/VWBjwJdNxl
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 31, 2024
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+116)
Baltimore Orioles (-122) at Cleveland Guardians (+104) | O/U 9 (-118/-104)
The Orioles are just 7-7 since the All-Star Break, and have lost 14 of their last 24 games. Thus, we are getting great value by backing the home Guardians in this matchup, especially since they are facing the only pitcher in the current Orioles rotation with a negative WAR rating (-0.3) on the season.
Baltimore is 1-3 in Dean Kremer’s last four starts, and the righty has allowed 16 runs in 20 innings in that span. Meanwhile, the Orioles get the highest percentage of their runs in the majors via the home run, but face an elite ground ball pitcher today in Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is on pace for his fourth season in the last five with a ground ball rate of 45.3% or better. And while his .318 BABIP appears troubling, it is still his best mark of the last three seasons, and his OPS allowed is 63 points better than last year.
Cleveland entered yesterday’s series opener winning 56 of its last 95 games, profiting bettors 10.37 units and a 9% ROI in that span. Meanwhile, the Orioles had cost their moneyline backers 11.10 units in their last 35 games, and we expect those trends to continue tonight.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+104)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
