TeamRankings Premium Services FAQ
July 18, 2017 – by Seth Trachtman
Where do the betting lines shown on the site come from?
We take our betting lines from respected, market making sportsbooks known to cater to sharp clients. Odds data is provided to us by Gracenote, a leading sports information service.
How Do You Predict Games?
For every sport we cover, we have developed several algorithmic models that independently predict the game winner and margin of victory. In addition, some of the models make additional projections such the final score, odds to cover the current point spread, or odds to cover the current over/under line.
We use multiple models because each model takes a different approach to predicting games, and it almost always helps to consider different perspectives and angles. For example, our Power Ratings model compares predictive power ratings for each team and adjusts for home advantage; our Similar Games model analyzes the historical results of games between two statistically similar opponents; our Decision Tree model can identify subtle yet significant performance trends that are all but impossible to unearth via manual analysis.
We combine projections from all these models into a single “TR Pick” (along with associated odds or a value score, depending on the type of pick we’re making). If one of the underlying models has proven particularly adept at picking a certain sport/pick type combination, that model’s projection will have a higher weight in determining the overall TR Pick.
You’ll notice that on our picks pages we also publish the results of some of the underlying models (e.g. Decision Tree, Similar Games, Power Ratings) in addition to the overall TR Pick. Our goal is to provide as much data as possible, and if you can p out how to make a profit from the information we publish in a way that we haven’t discovered yet — more power to you! We’ve heard from countless users over the years who have had success developing their own betting systems using our model projections in their own custom handicapping systems.
How Do I Find Your Recommended Plays, And What Do The Star Rankings Mean?
For point spread and totals picks, 2-star rated TR Picks aim to be correct at least 52.5% of the time over the long term, a rate that equates to profitability at the typical -110 payout odds offered by many sports books.
3-star TR picks carry a slightly higher long term confidence level (55%+), but year-to-year performance can vary greatly due to the small sample size of 3-star picks in most sports. 1-star picks are essentially toss-ups not expected to be profitable in the long term.
Star rankings for money line and run line value picks work slightly differently. These rankings are based on the TR Pick offering any level of positive expected value at the current payout odds. That means every “starred” pick, including 1-star picks, is considered playable, but the more stars, the more value the models see in the pick. Picks with negative expected value for both teams are instead labeled as “LAY OFF.”
It is critical to understand that “value” (in terms of money line and run line bets) and “odds for the pick to win” are two different things. For example, big underdogs with huge potential money line payouts may be rated as solid value bets by the models, but they are still expected to lose much more often than they win. Exploiting value in these situations over the long term demands a disciplined money management strategy that factors in the low odds of each bet winning.
Also, keep in mind that on account of variance, TR Picks can go through hot or cold streaks over a short timeframes. And since the sample sizes of higher-rated picks in some sports aren’t very large in any given season, the performance of TR Picks can vary substantially from season to season.
When Are Picks Released?
Unlike more traditional handicapping sites, we don’t have set release times for picks. As soon as a line is released for a game by one of the sports books we use and we receive that line from our odds feed service, our systems get to work crunching the numbers, making initial predictions, and publishing those predictions on the site. The process of actually making and publishing predictions from a new or updating betting line can take up to a few hours, depending on how much data (game results, other new betting lines and line changes coming in, etc.) that is being concurrently processed by our trusty servers over at Amazon Web Services.
Our picks pages on the site default to the current day’s games (or the current week’s games, for NFL and college football), but you’ll see a dropdown menu above the picks table where can select some other date options. Sometimes you will see a future date available there. If we’ve got lines and picks available for that future date, once you select it they will show in the table.
Can TR Picks Change?
Yes. Again, this is where our system and approach differs from more traditional handicappers. Our goal is to provide the best data-driven predictions for a game, based on all of the data we know at the current time. So our prediction models are constantly updating projections as new information flows in from our data providers. For example, the results of recently completed games cause stats and team power ratings to change, while betting line movement prompts our Decision Tree model to re-analyze a matchup with the understanding that Vegas has a different opinion than it did previously.
As a result, changes in important underlying data that occur after we publish our initial TR Picks for a game can (and will) cause those picks to change over time. In some cases, our projections may become more confident, in other cases less confident. Also, it’s not unheard of (especially in cases when an initial prediction barely favored one team) for a pick to “flip” to the other side.
If that sounds strange, consider the alternative: You come to the site today for our opinion on a game, and we show you a prediction that’s based on outdated information. Yuck.
Especially in some sports (college basketball being one), there tends to be more value in betting “early” lines for games, so users exclusively looking at TR Picks may benefit from making their plays as early as possible.
Where can I learn more about your betting picks and star ratings?
You can read more at the links below:
About Our Predictions
MLB Pick Logic
About Our Models
Where can I see your historical prediction accuracy?
You can view our prediction accuracy for this season and past seasons at the links below:
MLB Prediction Accuracy
NFL Prediction Accuracy
NBA Prediction Accuracy
NCAAF Prediction Accuracy
NCAAB Prediction Accuracy
Still have questions? Contact us at [email protected].
If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook
NFL Football Pool Picks NFL Survivor Pool Picks NCAA Bracket Picks College Bowl Pool Picks College Football Pool Picks NFL Picks NBA Picks MLB Picks College Football Picks College Basketball Picks NFL Predictions NBA Predictions MLB Predictions College Football Predictions College Basketball Predictions NFL Spread Picks NBA Spread Picks MLB Spread Picks College Football Spread Picks College Basketball Spread Picks NFL Rankings NBA Rankings MLB Rankings College Football Rankings College Basketball Rankings NFL Stats NBA Stats MLB Stats College Football Stats College Basketball Stats NFL Odds NBA Odds MLB Odds College Football Odds College Basketball Odds A product ofTeamRankings BlogAboutTeamJobsContact
© 2005-2024 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Statistical data provided by Gracenote.
TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA®) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein.
Terms of ServicePrivacy Policy